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Tom Johnson (Guest)
08-05-03, 07:08 AM
An interesting note to back up my previous posts re Alan Thomas. The best race caller in the business with the worst comments.This is an extract from the Pro Punter.


Alan Thomas
The Exaggerating One

If you're not at the racetrack then you certainly shouldn't pay any attention to the ramblings of Brisbane racecaller Alan Thomas before the horses jump. They are often exaggerated and inaccurate, in contrast to his usually good calls. Here's an example from last Saturday.

Before the third race at Eagle Farm he told us about the two short priced horses, Sticks And Stones and Star Groom:

"Now in the betting downstairs, now both horses have been backed here on track. I can tell you both Star Groom and Sticks and Stones, both have had support."

The normal meaning of a horse being "backed here on track" is that it has been plunged and firmed considerably. But not according to the exaggerations of Alan Thomas. You see, Star Groom firmed from only $3.20 to $3.00 and Sticks And Stones from $3.50 to $3.20. That is absolutely irrelevant. In predecimal odds terms the horses' prices both came in one point from 9/4 to 2/1 and from 5/2 to 9/4. So what!

Alan Thomas then got it badly wrong. He said there is "A bit of specking for Promoted at double figure odds and you can have the rest according to the betting." He then told us that "the two you need to watch for" were Star Groom and Sticks And Stones. Why on earth did we need to watch for them??? They also finished fourth and tenth.

Promoted firmed marginally from $12.00 to $11.00. That insignificant firming has proved over time as completely irrelevant as any meaningful betting guide. Sweep Out also firmed marginally from $12.00 to $11.00 but that was missed by Alan Thomas.

Promoted actually won. Alan Thomas could have fluked it by telling us that we also "need to watch" it. Maybe next week he will!

freddy (Guest)
29-05-03, 03:35 AM
be careful of the comments on pro punter. they often bag certain racing identities, then turn around and try and sell their betting packages.

while alan thomas and other callers do mislead the public quiet often, propunter is trying to sell "tips" and so their opinions should be taken with a grain of salt as all companies that run down others, but talk up their own "fabulous" ratings which cost money.

the best kind of ratings are the ones that a thinking punter does himself/herself and bets on the value selections.

if you take a look at propun's free ratings you will see how simple and childish they are and how few winners they pick.

despite this, like all companies flogging tips, they claim to have selected a first four paying a big sum on a regular basis. what they forgot to mention that they had 6-9 picks per race over dozens of races. if one was to box all of these selections up, they would lose overall.

another trick that these types of companies use is say they picked the winner, yet in their ratings it was the 4th or 5th choice. what's the deal with that? do they expect people to back their top 5 picks every race? if people did this, again they would lose overall.

they say people should just bet the value selections, but without doing your own ratings, its impossible to work out accurately which horses are TRUE VALUE and which horses arent. a $15 horse is lousy value if it has a 4% chance of winning, while a $5 horse may be excellent value if your ratings suggest a 33% chance of winning.

i do my own ratings and if i cant find the winner in the top 2 selections, i certainly dont consider them a huge success if the 5th horse wins. who cant pick the winner with 5 picks?


freddy has spoken