PDA

View Full Version : RATINGS



bmcguirk
20-04-05, 02:06 PM
Hi all
I haven't been able to find any thread which relates to the CIS ratings. As rated prices are determined by weighting factors based on whether the rating refers to the last, 2nd last, or 3rd last start, and also is modified depending on whether it is first up, second up or having its 3rd or more run from a spell, I thought it might be worth evaluating how the individual figures stack up.
Below are the ratings fro SYD SAT meetings (Jan 01- April 2nd )05.

SYDSAT
ST-3 Wins "Places" Total
67 0 1 1
66 1 3 7
65 4 12 20
64 16 36 69
63 30 77 188
62 40 122 414
61 60 159 507
60 66 175 634
59 92 248 751
58 92 271 888
57 102 297 1008
56 119 338 1063
55 111 354 1136
54 95 309 1080
53 133 370 1176
52 113 343 1095
51 100 300 1019
50 76 255 929
49 75 273 847
48 47 183 696
47 60 161 617
46 52 119 460
45 27 90 420
44 31 90 362
43 25 72 277
42 11 49 214
41 12 33 179
40 9 27 157
39 7 21 113
38 3 14 95
37 4 15 70
36 2 9 52
35 2 8 48
34 2 7 38
33 1 6 26
32 1 7 26
31 0 4 25
30 0 2 13
29 0 1 8
28 1 2 13
27 0 1 11
26 1 2 8
25 0 0 4
24 0 1 7
23 0 2 6
22 0 0 0
21 0 0 4
20 0 0 2
19 0 1 4
18 0 0 1
17 0 0 0
16 0 0 3
15 0 1 1
14 0 0 1
13 0 0 0
12 0 0 0
11 0 0 0
10 0 1 1
9 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
1 0 0 2
0 201 600 1972
1824 5472 18769
ST-2 Wins "Places" Total
67 1 1 1
66 0 4 7
65 8 22 31
64 18 35 86
63 38 89 221
62 70 155 420
61 49 179 540
60 83 226 661
59 98 252 755
58 115 308 921
57 106 325 1001
56 125 364 1121
55 125 378 1215
54 112 349 1196
53 109 364 1226
52 118 336 1120
51 117 316 1065
50 74 242 929
49 73 238 877
48 58 194 716
47 43 146 637
46 30 108 477
45 23 85 381
44 30 88 364
43 18 67 272
42 18 47 226
41 7 27 173
40 6 28 146
39 8 30 131
38 5 22 100
37 5 16 86
36 4 16 74
35 1 6 52
34 1 6 37
33 1 3 28
32 0 3 23
31 2 4 18
30 1 3 16
29 0 0 13
28 0 3 13
27 0 1 11
26 0 1 11
25 0 1 6
24 0 0 5
23 0 0 5
22 0 0 3
21 1 1 2
20 0 0 5
19 1 1 1
18 0 0 1
17 0 0 0
16 0 0 1
15 0 0 1
14 0 0 1
13 0 0 1
12 0 0 1
11 0 0 0
10 0 0 1
9 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 2
0 122 382 1335
1824 5472 18769
ST-1 Wins "Places" Total
67 1 1 1
66 4 7 12
65 10 20 32
64 23 48 101
63 35 101 244
62 84 189 482
61 81 237 571
60 118 262 665
59 107 284 827
58 140 378 1002
57 139 371 1106
56 143 410 1212
55 127 371 1270
54 111 406 1295
53 123 383 1259
52 95 302 1150
51 75 294 1125
50 77 244 932
49 62 235 846
48 55 167 730
47 39 153 599
46 34 105 504
45 20 66 381
44 17 62 314
43 16 50 263
42 6 24 204
41 7 29 181
40 6 25 146
39 9 20 121
38 1 12 107
37 0 11 71
36 1 5 60
35 2 8 58
34 1 4 43
33 0 2 28
32 1 2 25
31 0 1 30
30 0 3 16
29 0 1 10
28 0 2 13
27 0 0 10
26 1 3 11
25 0 0 7
24 0 0 7
23 0 0 2
22 0 0 2
21 0 0 3
20 0 0 3
19 0 0 1
18 0 0 1
17 0 0 0
16 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
14 0 0 1
13 0 0 0
12 0 0 0
11 0 0 0
10 0 0 0
9 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 1
0 53 174 684
1824 5472 18769
I have always had difficulties in using all 3 of the ratings because in one or more of the starts the horse may have run into trouble, not handled the track, been unwanted in the betting ("having a run"), unsuited by the distance, and so on. As such I tend to look for the horse's best of its last 3 starts, unless it is 1st or 2nd up, when I will look at its pattern, incl. class in last prep.
Admittedly, the data doesn't take the RB into account (perhaps another time) but apart from the top ratings (60's)the win %s are less than I would have thought. Any comments?

Sorry about the presentation. I hope it is clear enough to read.
I've just looked at the preview and to clarify further, Column1 is the rating, Column 2 is number of wins; Column 3 is number of "Places" including wins; and the last Column is number of qualifiers.
The last line for each of ST-1;ST-2;&ST-3 are the totals

Cheers
Brian

bmcguirk
22-04-05, 11:39 AM
OK
So noone is interested in this query.
So be it
Brian

DavidC
23-04-05, 01:37 AM
Hi Brian,

It's not that I'm not interested in your query, but actually I don't quite understand what you were trying to say.

David C

Sobar
23-04-05, 08:26 AM
Hi BM,
I have thought about starting a thread, myself, concerning the ratings to see if anybody has any useful way of utilizing them. After all there is more to Bet Selector than just system selector. What I have done, is looked at a few of the major races over the recent autumn carnival such as the Golden Slipper and looking at the ratings for that race in 2004 and 2003, see if there is any pattern pertaining to the winner. My angle was to see if the winners in those two years slotted into any sort of order (rating ranking) at st3, st2 or st1. As it was, I could see a pattern for that race and actually backed Stratum purely on that information. Other big races showed a lot of promise as well without actually backing anything (I just had to mhave a bet in the slipper). You could of course go back further, but just two years of information worked really well.

As to what you have done, how did you get all this info. It would have to have been done manually wouldn't it. Also did any of these rating figures, say 56 for st1 (most wins), show a profit.

Most wins for st3, st2 and st1 respectively were 53, 55 and 56. One horse in Sydney tomorrow conforms exactly to those figures, Syd R8 Zumanity. If that horse wins you'll go from being ignored to instant hero on this forum.

bmcguirk
23-04-05, 12:35 PM
Hi All
Sorry I haven't gotten back before this but it has been a busy day at work
First off, David C:
Perhaps I wasn't clear but the point I was making was that for individual ratings, apart from a few at the top the SR's for each was quite low, and in the case of lesser quality handicaps at least the percentages were unable to be differentiated using 95% Confidence Intervals. As such I wondered whether the ratings themselves were that relevant (heresy!) as a means of determining likely winners. Rather perhaps it was the change in ratings on returning from a spell, such as Stratum which was the clue.
Sobar:
The info is not that hard to get. I simply ran all Syd Sat meetings and then went to current CSV file and sorted the ratings for ST-1, etc into order & then added them up manually.
I didn't work out POTs basically because, at quick look, they virtually all seemed negative.
As for patterns, I haven't really looked at that either, but I suspect that the sample sizes for an individual state would be too small, even with my data back to Jan 2001.
I don't know about Zumanity but it is one of my top 2 in the last in SYd. Top run 1st up & Beadman riding. I presume it will be going to Bris (btn only an inch in the Qld Oaks this time last year). If so it should go close.

Brian

Super Impose
23-04-05, 12:36 PM
Lads,
If you want REAL RATINGS, just get yourself subscribed to Cyberhorse's XTRA RATINGS, or the BAN Ratings.

I don't have to spoon-feed ou the past results.

Get up off your backsides- 'cos they're worth finding.

In Combination with bet Selector- you won't go wrong!

'nuff said!