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raldridge
23-04-05, 02:47 AM
Hi All,
Thought people on this list might be interested in my findings over the last 3 months. Using the Bet Selector CIS top rated on all the main Victorian meetings each day, I was surprised to get a level stake profit. Here are the figures from my Excel work sheet. 651 bets to the end of yesterday. 151 winners or a win strike of 23%. Return of 721 units, or 11% level stake profit. Longest win outs in the period was 24. Average win dividend as per the QLD TAB $4.78. A $300 starting bank is now $634 or a profit gain on the starting bank of 111% using Malcolm Knowles's Power Of Ten staking software with the target set at Malcolm's recommended setting of 5% of the start bank.
That is an average of 1.3% profit on the bank per day.Remember more profit could be made by taking Maxidiv or Best Odds etc. The figures above are based on using one TAB, the QLD one.
cheers

cabbie
29-04-05, 07:26 AM
[pre]SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: PR$1 (at 15:11:44 on 28/04/2005)
Venue: X
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 2
Max $000 Prize Increase: 3
Predicted Margin: 0.0 - -3.5
SP Overlay Index: 101

:-(

raldridge
30-04-05, 03:18 AM
Hi Cabbie,
Your system needs a lot of work, or forget it as the results from my limited country and provincial database are not good.
Win
21 races
$22 Outlay
$13.1 returned
-$8.9 profit
-40.5% POT
23.8% race strike

Place
20 races
7 placed
35% race strike
$21 outlay
$10.04 returned
-$10.96 profit
-52.2% POT
cheers

bstester
30-04-05, 05:27 AM
G'day Cabbie,

Your system needs some tweaking. It fails badly when used everyday :(. A small tweak for wednesday & saturday only gives a some positive result ;-). The modified system looks like

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: PROV-COUNTRY SYSTEM
Day of Week: 47
Venue: X
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 2
Max $000 Prize Increase: 3
Predicted Margin: 0.0 - -3.5
SP Overlay Index: 101

Meetings considered : 2332
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 30.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 59.5%
Average Win Dividend : $3.89

Meetings considered : 2332
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 30.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 59.5%
Average Win Dividend : $3.89

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 348 345 348 348 348 86
Races Won : 116 219 130 84 69 10
S.R./Race : 33.3% 63.5% 37.4% 24.1% 19.8% 11.6%
Outlay ($): 383.00 380.00 1864.00 1900.00 7550.00 5628.00
Return : 451.20 388.40 1651.30 1544.40 6769.10 2680.50
$ Profit : 68.20 8.40 -212.70 -355.60 -780.90 -2947.50
% P.O.T. : 17.8% 2.2% -11.4% -18.7% -10.3% -52.4%



BSTester
Always ready to test & try new systems

BradW
01-05-05, 09:52 AM
The results from your analysis on the highest rated runner are encouraging for me. I use the Plus ratings as the backbone to my selection process. The Plus ratings are closely correlated to the CIS ratings.

I use the Plus ratings and then put the top couple through a group a filters to decide my final selections.

BradW

sabu
04-05-05, 03:43 AM
I am interested in what you are doing. I have run a few tests but cannot achieve what you have. Do you use all Vict meetings or only city and provincial.

Any further info would be appreciate.
If you register you could contact me off forum if so desired.

Cheers
Norm
:P :P

whip it
04-05-05, 01:49 PM
cabbie and others,

With regards to your system I believe and correct me if i am wrong that the sp overlay index is really on vaild on saturday's as the market info is only collected for saturday racing only.

So i tested saturday's last year "2004" and the results are:
SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: CABBIE (at 21:39:21 on 03/05/2005)
Day of Week: 7
Venue: X
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 2
Max $000 Prize Increase: 3
Predicted Margin: 0.0 - -3.5
SP Overlay Index: 101

SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: CABBIE 01/01/2004-31/12/2004
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 81 79 81 81 81 29
Races Won : 20 43 28 17 14 5
S.R./Race : 24.7% 54.4% 34.6% 21.0% 17.3% 17.2%
Outlay ($): 87.00 85.00 422.00 429.00 1698.00 1824.00
Return : 105.80 77.74 248.40 187.00 779.40 1837.70
$ Profit : 18.80 -7.26 -173.60 -242.00 -918.60 13.70
% P.O.T. : 21.6% -8.5% -41.1% -56.4% -54.1% 0.8%


It managed to jag a $60 winner on the 14/8/04 so without that it's not looking too great.

john morgan
06-05-05, 12:47 AM
Hi Everyone,

here is my Country System for comment,

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: PR$3BR$2 COUNTRY (at 08:45:47 on 05/05/2005)
Race Field Size: 8 - 12
Max No 1st Uppers: 3
Venue: X
Track Condition: G
TAB Number: 3 - 24
Predicted Odds: 0.0 - 1.2
SP Rank: 1 - 2



Meetings considered : 1300
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 41.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 73.1%
Average Win Dividend : $2.88

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 208 208 208 208 208 100
Races Won : 86 152 100 64 49 14
S.R./Race : 41.3% 73.1% 48.1% 30.8% 23.6% 14.0%
Outlay ($): 208.00 208.00 1040.00 1040.00 4160.00 6000.00
Return : 247.40 216.94 1164.20 1305.50 4364.10 7665.40
$ Profit : 39.40 8.94 124.20 265.50 204.10 1665.40
% P.O.T. : 18.9% 4.3% 11.9% 25.5% 4.9% 27.8%

Test Duration = 00:10:44

neale
06-05-05, 02:03 AM
Hi John,

Please use the "forum" button in System Selector and then cut/paste to your post. Then the columns will line up so we can all read it better.

Regards, Neale

cabbie
06-05-05, 11:26 AM
Looks good John. I am glad it the thread has continued. There are a few of us out there that bekieve there is value to be found during and with provincial country racing.

Phil

bstester
06-05-05, 02:54 PM
A system is only good if it stands the test of time.

My testing has revealed the following result.

Meetings considered : 7165
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 37.0%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 74.7%
Average Win Dividend : $2.68

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 462 462 462 462 462 174
Races Won : 171 345 213 132 104 26
S.R./Race : 37.0% 74.7% 46.1% 28.6% 22.5% 14.9%
Outlay ($): 462.00 462.00 2310.00 2310.00 9240.00 10440.00
Return : 458.30 474.06 2086.80 2131.10 7511.70 13648.20
$ Profit : -3.70 12.06 -223.20 -178.90 -1728.30 3208.20
% P.O.T. : -0.8% 2.6% -9.7% -7.7% -18.7% 30.7%

Test Duration = 00:31:48


Though the SR is good for both win & place the POT is not positive this system needs some tweaking.

BSTester
Always ready to test & try new systems

john morgan
07-05-05, 12:30 AM
Hi BS,

I believe your results further emphasise the potential of the Country System.

The fact that through your test of over 7000 races that it just about breaks even for Win Bets and is still in profit for place bets leads me to believe it is worth further discussion and consideration.

After all The Country System only had a few rules and I believe with some half decent race selection and simple form analysis there could be worse things to consider on a Tuesday when your looking for a bet.

JM

cabbie
11-05-05, 10:27 AM
I agree. Try testing with overlay only

cabbie}>