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View Full Version : Long shot system (From that new guy



K1w1
14-05-05, 11:13 AM
OK, below is some variations of a system Iíve been working on and would appreciate your input, changes etc. Probably get blown out of the water but here goes.

Iíve been using Neales PPPro or Bet Selector since Sep 02 (Slow learner) and first started with TVF 5 start form changing to TRB 16 start Metro form from Nov 03.

Itís a system thatís very selective looking for a long shot (not much action) but could be run alongside a more active one that does have more action.

Iíve dropped in 3 variations of the same system and was looking for winners that have raced at this course, would give out long shots and keep up a reasonable S/R.
No 1 is without any overlay. No 2 with overlay = 100. No 3 combination of 5 and 16 start form.
From the info I have a S/R of about 70% would give me at most about 9 run of outs.

If someone could run this over a longer period and also see if thereís much difference between 5 or 16 start form.
Hope this post isnít too long but I guess someone will put me straight one way or the other. Meanwhile thanks.

1)
Overlay = 0 --- 16 Start Form from 28/11/03 (Metro Form)

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: SAME (at 17:00:04 on 13/05/2005)
Race Distance: 1200 - 1500
Race Field Size: 6 - 14
Race Class (avBase): 55 - 99
Venue: SMBA
Track Condition: GD
Age of Horse: 2 - 7
Horse Win %: 20 - 100
Horse Place %: 50 - 100
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 4
Max Distance Rise-Drop: 400 - 200
Won or Okay at Distance: Y
Won at This Course: Y
Winning Form: Y
Improver: Y
Predicted Posn Rank: 4 - 8
2nd and 3rd Place Standouts: 6.0 and 9.0

SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: SAME 28/11/2003-30/04/2005
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 20 20 20 20 20 20
Races Won : 7 11 9 7 6 6
S.R./Race : 35.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Outlay ($): 21.00 21.00 111.00 111.00 762.00 4492.00
Return : 84.50 34.10 289.20 663.30 4672.00 40048.70
$ Profit : 63.50 13.10 178.20 552.30 3910.00 35556.70
% P.O.T. : 302.4% 62.4% 160.5% 497.6% 513.1% 791.6%

2)
Overlay = 100 --- 16 Start Form from 28/11/03 (Metro Form)

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: SAME (at 17:05:01 on 13/05/2005)
Race Distance: 1200 - 1500
Race Field Size: 6 - 14
Race Class (avBase): 55 - 99
Venue: SMBA
Track Condition: GD
Age of Horse: 2 - 7
Horse Win %: 20 - 100
Horse Place %: 50 - 100
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 4
Max Distance Rise-Drop: 400 - 200
Won or Okay at Distance: Y
Won at This Course: Y
Winning Form: Y
Improver: Y
Predicted Posn Rank: 4 - 8
2nd and 3rd Place Standouts: 6.0 and 9.0
SP Overlay Index: 100


SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: SAME 22/11/2003-30/04/2005
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 7 7 7 7 7 7
Races Won : 5 6 4 4 4 4
S.R./Race : 71.4% 85.7% 57.1% 57.1% 57.1% 57.1%
Outlay ($): 7.00 7.00 36.00 36.00 242.00 1402.00
Return : 78.70 25.10 211.40 537.30 4365.40 38958.10
$ Profit : 71.70 18.10 175.40 501.30 4123.40 37556.10
% P.O.T. : 1024.3% 258.6% 487.2% 1392.5% 1703.9% 2678.8%


3)
In the below summary I noticed prior to using 16 start form there were no wins.

Combination of 5 Start From Prior to 28/11/03 --- 16 Start Metro Form from 28/11/03
SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: SAME 05/01/2002-30/04/2005

Meetings considered : 854
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 35.7%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 50.0%
Average Win Dividend : $15.74


WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 14 14 14 14 14 14
Races Won : 5 7 5 4 4 4
S.R./Race : 35.7% 50.0% 35.7% 28.6% 28.6% 28.6%
Outlay ($): 14.00 14.00 72.00 72.00 463.00 2562.00
Return : 78.70 27.00 223.60 537.30 4365.40 38958.10
$ Profit : 64.70 13.00 151.60 465.30 3902.40 36396.10
% P.O.T. : 462.1% 92.9% 210.6% 646.3% 842.9% 1420.6%

bstester
15-05-05, 11:07 AM
Result with Overlay = 0

Meetings considered : 2511

Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 17.5%

Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 37.9%

Average Win Dividend : $8.16



WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR

Races Bet : 95 93 95 95 95 66

Races Won : 18 38 21 13 12 8

S.R./Race : 18.9% 40.9% 22.1% 13.7% 12.6% 12.1%

Outlay ($): 103.00 101.00 531.00 534.00 3625.00 14554.00

Return : 146.80 94.40 596.80 887.10 6865.30 41078.90

$ Profit : 43.80 -6.60 65.80 353.10 3240.30 26524.90

% P.O.T. : 42.5% -6.5% 12.4% 66.1% 89.4% 182.3%


BSTester
Always ready to test & try new systems

bstester
15-05-05, 12:48 PM
Result with Overlay = 100

Meetings considered : 2511
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 18.2%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 31.8%
Average Win Dividend : $15.73

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 22 22 22 22 22 22
Races Won : 4 7 4 3 3 3
S.R./Race : 18.2% 31.8% 18.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6%
Outlay ($): 22.00 22.00 112.00 112.00 743.00 4242.00
Return : 62.90 26.70 185.80 450.90 3533.20 34972.30
$ Profit : 40.90 4.70 73.80 338.90 2790.20 30730.30
% P.O.T. : 185.9% 21.4% 65.9% 302.6% 375.5% 724.4%



BSTester
Always ready to test & try new systems