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zombienz
15-06-05, 10:15 AM
Evening all, have been recently thinking about laying horses with Betfair, rather than backing them. Pretty easy to run BS with a system of favourites NOT winning & stats look good. The price I can lay at will obviously vary from the SP in BS, but I reckon it is still worth a trial anyway. Thinking it might be fun cheering on every other horse bar one.
Soooo, wondering if anyone lays horses off,how they are performing & any comments people may have regarding this.
Cheers

Barrywh
15-06-05, 02:08 PM
My advice is to go in slowly. Start with laying for the place rather than the win. Doesn't cost as much when you get it wrong.

And, if you're going to lay, get in early, rather than later. You'll normally find that laying prospects you have discovered usually get discovered by the others, but hopefully, later.

More often than not, these are the 'drifters' in the market. So, don't get greedy and hang on in the hope that you'll be able to lay at shorter odds. It ain't gonna happen.

And, by getting in early, you can often find yourself in an arbitrage position.

Some Betfair player jumps on to your offer of $1.40 the place...the horse drifts to $1.70 the place. You back it at those odds and you can't lose!!

Wonderful position to be in.

A recent lay for me was Ruling Eyes at Flemington on Sat 11/06/2005.
This opened on S-Tab at $2.50 the win, but drifted to $3.10. This was Plus Rating's top pick, as well as Price Predictors top pick.

Generally speaking, you expect these chances to be the favorites, or well in the market.

Yet, Systems Selector said otherwise. Horses that fitted Ruling Eyes profile seemed to have a dismal strike rate, with only 1 winner found and 3 placegetters found from 35 selections.

Granted, that was over a very narrow time frame as I've only had BS for the past 2 months and have nowhere nearly enough races to perform adequate research ( I've got around 1800 races so far).

For those with larger databases interested in testing these rules they are very simply:

Race Distance: 1200 - 2400
Age: 6 - 12
Career Starts: 45 - 999
Days to last start: 22 - 999
Runs this prep: 1 - 2

Would like to know the results over a longer test period, as I'm sure most readers would.

Anyway, getting back to Ruling Eyes. Early in the piece there were takers at $1.50 the place on Betfair, but as expected you needed to offer above $1.70 close to the off.

These opportunities don't come along everday, but they are nice when they do.

Again, using my narrow database, the top rated BR,PR,PP selection has won 39% of races with no other filters. That's a healthy SR for favorites that should win 30% of the time. With a few rules, you can get this to 50% Plus. And, more importantly, you can get the 'duds' down to a 15% SR. Again, these are more often than not favorites.

These are the ones that can make laying worthwhile.

racingnovice
15-06-05, 04:28 PM
Here is a longer test for the rules above.

Meetings considered : 5947

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: TEST (at 23:50:24 on 14/06/2005)
Race Distance: 1200 - 2400
Race Field Size: 6 - 12
Career Starts: 45 - 999
Days to Last Start: 22 - 999
Runs this Preparation: 1 - 2

SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: TEST 01/01/2001-29/05/2005
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 422 344 422 422 422 245
Races Won : 17 54 34 16 13 5
S.R./Race : 4.0% 15.7% 8.1% 3.8% 3.1% 2.0%
Outlay ($): 446.00 363.00 2503.00 2505.00 11670.00 25740.00
Return : 161.20 183.70 1025.20 972.10 2406.80 5282.70
$ Profit : -284.80 -179.30 -1477.80 -1532.90 -9263.20 -20457.30
% P.O.T. : -63.9% -49.4% -59.0% -61.2% -79.4% -79.5%

run again
16-06-05, 02:35 AM
>Here is a longer test for the rules above.
>
>Meetings considered : 5947
>
>[pre]SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: TEST (at 23:50:24 on
>14/06/2005)
>Race Distance: 1200 - 2400
>Race Field Size: 6 - 12
>Career Starts: 45 - 999
>Days to Last Start: 22 - 999
>Runs this Preparation: 1 - 2
>

hi mate,

the rule was AGE 6-12.

you ran the system with race field size of 6-12, could you please run again??.

i can see what he is saying...here is an older horse just back from a spell and is very likely going to need a few runs back b4 the horse will get anywhere near its best form.

thanks dude

racingnovice
16-06-05, 02:46 AM
Sorry it was late lol. I'm running it again now with age 6-12 will post as soon as its done.

racingnovice
16-06-05, 03:41 AM
This should be right :).

SYSTEM SELECTOR RULES FOR: TEST (at 11:11:17 on 15/06/2005)
Race Distance: 1200 - 2400
Age of Horse: 6 - 12
Career Starts: 45 - 999
Days to Last Start: 22 - 999
Runs this Preparation: 1 - 2

SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: TEST 01/01/2001-29/05/2005
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 602 495 602 602 602 366
Races Won : 20 71 45 17 13 5
S.R./Race : 3.3% 14.3% 7.5% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4%
Outlay ($): 642.00 528.00 3640.00 3643.00 17186.00 40464.00
Return : 304.10 263.50 1949.30 2398.40 11294.00 17307.30
$ Profit : -337.90 -264.50 -1690.70 -1244.60 -5892.00 -23156.70
% P.O.T. : -52.6% -50.1% -46.4% -34.2% -34.3% -57.2%

barrywh1
16-06-05, 07:53 AM
Thanks for those stats Racing Novice. Encouraging to see
that the poor strike rate held good for the much longer
test period. Still, the average winning dividend for those 20
that did win was around the $15 Mark and $3.70 the place. Not
surprisingly, I've found with many of my lay systems that these
are the horses where the Betfair guys are offering well over the
odds for. (Say $25 on these $15 Tab chances).

Of course, often these are well down in the BR$ and PP ratings.
It's the times that they figure in the ratings, like Ruling Eyes
did, that I believe the best opportunity arises for laying, without
the risk of having to offer generous odds in order to do so.

After all, they do win and place sometimes!!

Would be interested to know how many of the 20 winners and 71 placegetters appeared in the top 5 BR and PP selections, and the average winning odds. This should provide a better guide to the risk factor involved with laying them.

zombienz
16-06-05, 11:20 AM
Thanks for your input you two. Good comments by barrywh (cheers). Will be concentrating on place only to start with. Will trial for a few weeks to see how it pans out. Regards

barrywh1
16-06-05, 01:14 PM
Just a question zombienz, are you intending to lay based on BS/System Analyser 'negative' factors?

If so, here's another you might be interested in - and maybe Racing Novice or another with a larger database would be willing to put through the hoops. Personally, I'm a little suspect, as you know my database is rather immature. It also appears to me to have too many rules, and from my observations to date (however limited) it seems to me that the more rules, possibly the more suspect (read - retrofit).

Anyway, for what it's worth:

BR$5 in heading, then,

Race Distance: 1000 - 2000
Race Field Size: 8 - 14
Track Condition: GDS
Age of Horse: 3- 9
Career starts: 25 - 999
Barrier position: 6 - 24
Tab Number: 5 - 24
Weight to carry: 49.0 - 54.0
Days to last start: 8 - 100
Runs this prep: 3 - 99
Last start fin pos: 2 - 24
2nd last start fin pos: 2 - 24
3rd last start fin pos: 2 - 24
4th last start fin pos: 2 - 24
Weight change Min-Max: -5.0 - 1.0
Won at this course: X
Av prizemoney rank: 3 - 24
Win % Rank: 3 - 24
Place % Rank: 3 - 24
Predicted Pos Rank: 1 - 5

The only qualifier today on this system was Northam Race 8, No 5 Get Ahead. Well, you sure wouldn't have if you'd backed it!

Mind, it did get a little too close for comfort as I think it ran 5th!!

But, as usual with these prospective 'duds' the Betfair guys are onto them. S-Tab opened for $4.10 the win, and drifted to $4.90. $6.20 was readily available on Betfair. It drifted to $1.90 the place on S-Tab, but you needed to offer above $2.58 to get matched on Betfair! Damn clever these guys!

If you're not watching the action on Betfair, you certainly should be. You don't need to be a member, or even login. Simply go to Betfair.com.au and see what happens. Click on 'next horse race', and once the action hots up - around a minute or so before the off - click on the name of the horse and you'll see the bets that have been matched. If you'd done so today, you'd have seen some serious money go for the win on Canterbury Race 3 No 4 Liquidity. Rocking On, in the same Race, was one of my better system selections - but it was short, and the best I could get was $1.96 the win on Betfair. But I could get over $3.00 on Liquidity to place. So, had a bit of both - wish I'd had enough time to flip to the TAB account and take the exacta! Time is of the essence in these situations, and there's precious little.

Anyway, zombienz, if you are using BS/Analyser as the basis of laying, what about sharing one of your systems, as I've done?

If you're worried that you'll damage the odds......think again! Betfair has the world as it's oyster. I reckon us BS users, or readers of this forum would represent less than a fraction of 1%. Irritates me that these guys so often appear to know more than us.

Let me leave you with this thought ( Not mine but a quote from Stephen Grellet)

"I expect to pass through this world but once; any good therefore that I can do, or any kindness that I can show to any fellow-creature, let me do it now; let me not defer or neglect it, for I shall not pass this way again".

I guess another way of saying this is: "what goes around comes around".

Bibra
16-06-05, 03:54 PM
I think with laying, any potential system will prob have to have a LOT of at least 30%. 40% and above would be preferable. You'll have to stick to horses under 10/1 to get to avoid laying at more than 20-30% over sp. I always have a max s/p of 11.0 whenever I'm trying to come up with a laying system. ( I brought Price Predictor/Bet Selector solely to build laying systems but finding a decent losing system is not as easy as I thought it would be.)

The main factor with your profitability with laying is getting matched as close to s/p as possible. Hopefully that'll get easier when Betfair gets licensed and the liquidity increases.

Barry, your system seems to work just as well with selections under 10/1. I've only got a yr's worth of midweek data though.

zombienz
17-06-05, 11:37 AM
Barrywh1, nice quote, you have made me so guilty, I'll have to post a laying system now, just so I can sleep tonight :)
I have very limited back data, & prefer to keep it nice & simple with a minimum of rules, as you can see. With a bit of tweaking I could reduce that S/R further.
I also would set maximum laying odds of about $3, but preferably less.
Now some of you may not think that is too flash as the POT loss is -25.6%, but it gives a lot of action. I also prefer to lay shorter odds, so would lay favourites. Therefore if the horse wins, I haven't lost too much anyway. Would much rather prefer that than sweating on a horse layed for $10 or so anyway.


Race Distance: 800 - 1600
Day of Week: 7
Venue: SM
Age of Horse: 5 - 12
SP Rank: 1 - 1

Meetings considered : 142
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 23.8%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 56.1%
Average Win Dividend : $3.13

WIN
Bet : 164
Races Won : 39
S.R./Race : 23.8%
Outlay ($): 164.00
Return : 122.00
$ Profit : -42.00
% P.O.T. : -25.6%